FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

360.56 – 66.95

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

539 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 110.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 704.3 ±9.3

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 140.33Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 130.3Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 89.93Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.7 ±11

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -13.86Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 65.98Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 14.83Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 865, 5406, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 865, 5406, 2200

Auto

88.8 25%

Teleop

210.1 59%

Endgame

54.4 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6975, 7659, 6875

/ 100 compat

Projected

67 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6975, 7659, 6875

Auto

25.2 39%

Teleop

37.2 57%

Endgame

2.8 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score360.6pts

Blue projected score67pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 293.6
Score range: 20–408
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 564 vs event baseline 262.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

704.3Season APEX212.7

88.8Auto25.2

210.1Teleop37.2

54.4Endgame2.8

126Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	13
teleop	325	8
endgame	91	4
foul	0	0
total	539	25

Result

Final score

539 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 110.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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