FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

363.17 – 305.91

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

363 – 369

Prediction missed · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.3 ±9.4

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 191.62Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 79.71Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 91.84Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 595.1 ±9.8

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 186.07Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 48.72Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 71.12Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1325, 2386, 9262

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1325, 2386, 9262

Auto

68.0 19%

Teleop

213.4 59%

Endgame

79.2 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2056, 2706, 9659

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2056, 2706, 9659

Auto

64.7 21%

Teleop

176.0 57%

Endgame

68.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score363.2pts

Blue projected score305.9pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.3
Score range: 259–410
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 732 vs event baseline 259.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.3Season APEX595.1

68Auto64.7

213.4Teleop176

79.2Endgame68.2

84Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	105
teleop	145	191
endgame	109	73
foul	0	0
total	363	369

Result

Final score

363 – 369

Prediction missed · off by 31.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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