FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

170.9 – 176.48

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.9 ±11

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 42.9Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 1.81Rank 49Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 126.19Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.6 ±10.4

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 107.41Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 30.2Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 38.87Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5036, 3560, 5409

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5036, 3560, 5409

Auto

33.5 21%

Teleop

75.2 48%

Endgame

48.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11227, 7476, 1334

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11227, 7476, 1334

Auto

45.2 26%

Teleop

88.0 51%

Endgame

40.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score170.9pts

Blue projected score176.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.6
Score range: 124–223
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 261.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.9Season APEX301.6

33.5Auto45.2

75.2Teleop88

48.6Endgame40.6

240Consistency186

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	44
teleop	53	152
endgame	28	36
foul	0	5
total	138	237

Result

Final score

138 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.