FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.47 – 285.31

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

218 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.8 ±10.4

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 44.74Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 144.99Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -47.26Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.1 ±10.4

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 139.47Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 32.99Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 112.85Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2708, 9569, 5870

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2708, 9569, 5870

Auto

27.0 19%

Teleop

85.8 60%

Endgame

31.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7200, 4920, 9562

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7200, 4920, 9562

Auto

24.4 9%

Teleop

169.2 63%

Endgame

76.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score142.5pts

Blue projected score285.3pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.8
Score range: 95–332
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 261.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.8Season APEX403.1

27Auto24.4

85.8Teleop169.2

31.1Endgame76.6

118Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	38
teleop	120	200
endgame	75	42
foul	10	20
total	218	300

Result

Final score

218 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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