FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.81 – 136.02

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.7 ±9.8

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 61Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 12.06Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 50.75Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.4 ±10.4

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 54.66Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 33.56Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 47.8Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5596, 772, 4308

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5596, 772, 4308

Auto

30.6 25%

Teleop

63.4 53%

Endgame

26.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1334, 5870, 7757

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1334, 5870, 7757

Auto

24.6 18%

Teleop

66.6 50%

Endgame

42.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score123.8pts

Blue projected score136pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.2
Score range: 71–189
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 293.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.7Season APEX193.4

30.6Auto24.6

63.4Teleop66.6

26.6Endgame42.8

27Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	10
teleop	34	61
endgame	15	29
foul	5	0
total	78	100

Result

Final score

78 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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