FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.86 – 270.85

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.5 ±10.5

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -10.43Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 45.25Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 96.04Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.4 ±10.4

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 108.51Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 3.99Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 158.35Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9580, 11428, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9580, 11428, 7520

Auto

44.7 38%

Teleop

43.1 37%

Endgame

29.0 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1305, 5596, 7902

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1305, 5596, 7902

Auto

28.7 11%

Teleop

140.0 52%

Endgame

98.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score130.9pts

Blue projected score270.9pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140
Score range: 84–318
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 263.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.5Season APEX371.4

44.7Auto28.7

43.1Teleop140

29Endgame98.7

190Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	72
teleop	101	126
endgame	23	61
foul	0	5
total	167	264

Result

Final score

167 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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