FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

239.36 – 140.8

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

413 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 127.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.1 ±9.8

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 80.91Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 118.97Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 39.48Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.1 ±10.4

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 45.75Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 11.38Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 83.67Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7757, 10015, 3161

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7757, 10015, 3161

Auto

33.4 14%

Teleop

111.0 47%

Endgame

91.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5689, 5672, 10514

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5689, 5672, 10514

Auto

51.0 36%

Teleop

79.3 57%

Endgame

10.0 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.19 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score239.4pts

Blue projected score140.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.6
Score range: 93–287
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 264.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.1Season APEX179.1

33.4Auto51

111Teleop79.3

91.4Endgame10

103Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	12
teleop	259	32
endgame	68	15
foul	0	0
total	413	59

Result

Final score

413 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 127.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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