FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

340.29 – 300.83

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

471 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 86.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 589.5 ±9.3

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 191.07Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 54.27Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 94.95Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.7 ±9.8

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 123.75Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 202.02Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -24.94Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4678, 4308, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4678, 4308, 4907

Auto

72.5 22%

Teleop

202.4 61%

Endgame

56.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4069, 4476, 9575

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4069, 4476, 9575

Auto

57.1 19%

Teleop

180.2 60%

Endgame

64.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score340.3pts

Blue projected score300.8pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.5
Score range: 254–387
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 815 vs event baseline 258.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

589.5Season APEX540.7

72.5Auto57.1

202.4Teleop180.2

56.4Endgame64.5

55Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	51
teleop	270	178
endgame	134	115
foul	0	0
total	471	344

Result

Final score

471 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 86.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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