FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.16 – 340.91

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

264 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 84.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.7 ±10.4

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 137.84Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX -19.51Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 40.83Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 664.6 ±9.3

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 37.7Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 253.29Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 49.92Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1360, 3756, 9263

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1360, 3756, 9263

Auto

-3.0 0%

Teleop

72.8 47%

Endgame

85.2 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 919, 1114, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 919, 1114, 7712

Auto

63.8 19%

Teleop

203.8 59%

Endgame

76.0 22%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score159.2pts

Blue projected score340.9pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -181.8
Score range: 112–388
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 541 vs event baseline 258.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.7Season APEX664.6

-3Auto63.8

72.8Teleop203.8

85.2Endgame76

80Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	61
teleop	121	120
endgame	91	76
foul	0	20
total	264	277

Result

Final score

264 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 84.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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