FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.94 – 387.19

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.7 ±11

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -34.99Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 59Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX -1.07Rank 49Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 620.5 ±9.4

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 136.1Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 59.07Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 192.02Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5870, 7659, 3560

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5870, 7659, 3560

Auto

25.4 91%

Teleop

36.4 100%

Endgame

-33.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5409, 4976, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5409, 4976, 1325

Auto

55.0 14%

Teleop

234.9 61%

Endgame

97.3 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score22.9pts

Blue projected score387.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -364.2
Score range: -24–434
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 260.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.7Season APEX620.5

25.4Auto55

36.4Teleop234.9

-33.8Endgame97.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	84
teleop	31	215
endgame	7	86
foul	0	0
total	57	385

Result

Final score

57 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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