FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

311.12 – 149.8

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.3 ±10.4

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 126.35Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 135.32Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 49.45Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.8 ±10.4

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 25.22Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 85.68Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 38.9Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 865, 7902, 7476

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 865, 7902, 7476

Auto

51.6 17%

Teleop

160.3 53%

Endgame

90.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5596, 9562, 2706

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5596, 9562, 2706

Auto

18.8 12%

Teleop

65.8 43%

Endgame

67.5 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score311.1pts

Blue projected score149.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.3
Score range: 103–358
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 259.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.3Season APEX311.8

51.6Auto18.8

160.3Teleop65.8

90.7Endgame67.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	17
teleop	190	88
endgame	73	86
foul	5	5
total	350	196

Result

Final score

350 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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