FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

237.68 – 348.2

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

341 – 460

Prediction correct · off by 107.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396 ±9.8

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 41.04Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 84.97Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 111.67Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 632.2 ±9.8

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 113.8Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 159.89Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 74.51Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7757, 11227, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7757, 11227, 7520

Auto

39.5 16%

Teleop

152.4 63%

Endgame

51.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9569, 2056, 9262

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9569, 2056, 9262

Auto

68.2 20%

Teleop

221.8 65%

Endgame

53.6 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score237.7pts

Blue projected score348.2pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.5
Score range: 192–394
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 801 vs event baseline 253.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396Season APEX632.2

39.5Auto68.2

152.4Teleop221.8

51.4Endgame53.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	92
teleop	158	263
endgame	107	105
foul	0	0
total	341	460

Result

Final score

341 – 460

Prediction correct · off by 107.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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