FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.23 – 429.46

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

260 – 468

Prediction correct · off by 70.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472 ±10.5

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 68.91Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 65.16Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 23.16Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631.2 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 187.2Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 57.73Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 184.53Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2386, 2200, 11428

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2386, 2200, 11428

Auto

59.9 39%

Teleop

65.2 42%

Endgame

28.8 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4476, 5689, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4476, 5689, 4678

Auto

60.2 14%

Teleop

237.7 56%

Endgame

129.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score157.2pts

Blue projected score429.5pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -272.2
Score range: 112–474
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 728 vs event baseline 247.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472Season APEX631.2

59.9Auto60.2

65.2Teleop237.7

28.8Endgame129.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	97
teleop	133	309
endgame	20	57
foul	25	5
total	260	468

Result

Final score

260 – 468

Prediction correct · off by 70.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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