FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.33 – 255.37

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

179 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 116.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.7 ±9.8

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 88.5Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 85.01Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -5.18Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.8 ±10.4

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 54.9Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 96.47Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 104Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4907, 10514, 9575

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4907, 10514, 9575

Auto

24.4 14%

Teleop

92.2 53%

Endgame

58.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 2708, 919

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3756, 2708, 919

Auto

41.7 16%

Teleop

156.5 61%

Endgame

56.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score168.3pts

Blue projected score255.4pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87
Score range: 122–301
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 254.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.7Season APEX213.8

24.4Auto41.7

92.2Teleop156.5

58.3Endgame56.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	7
teleop	68	7
endgame	32	19
foul	10	0
total	179	33

Result

Final score

179 – 33

Prediction missed · off by 116.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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