Qualification · Qualification 20
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
241.27 – 77.54
88%12%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
212 – 113
Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.5 ±9.8
Season APEX 82Event APEX 43.78Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 48.59Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 148.9Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288 ±9.8
Season APEX 76.8Event APEX -2.87Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 63.92Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 16.49Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9659, 6875, 5406
62
/ 100 compatProjected
241.3 pts
~2.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9659, 6875, 5406
Auto
44.0 18%
Teleop
156.5 65%
Endgame
41.4 17%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 30%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 5672, 1334, 772
43
/ 100 compatProjected
77.5 pts
~0.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5672, 1334, 772
Auto
18.6 25%
Teleop
35.3 47%
Endgame
21.6 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 30%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.59
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score241.3pts
Blue projected score77.5pts
Red win probability88%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 30%, blue 27%
Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 163.7
- Score range
- 31–288
- Upset likelihood
- 12%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
429.5Season APEX288
44Auto18.6
156.5Teleop35.3
41.4Endgame21.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 49 | 32 |
| teleop | 121 | 51 |
| endgame | 42 | 30 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 212 | 113 |
Result
Final score
212 – 113
Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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