FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

496.26 – 350.58

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

401 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 66.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 787.7 ±9.3

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 332.04Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 89.9Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 74.32Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.4 ±10.4

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 138.31Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 64.03Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 148.24Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1114, 10015, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

496.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1114, 10015, 4920

Auto

101.0 21%

Teleop

262.8 54%

Endgame

124.4 25%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4069, 2386, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4069, 2386, 865

Auto

71.1 21%

Teleop

196.1 57%

Endgame

78.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score496.3pts

Blue projected score350.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.7
Score range: 298–549
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 790 vs event baseline 293.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

787.7Season APEX459.4

101Auto71.1

262.8Teleop196.1

124.4Endgame78.9

79Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	76
teleop	215	207
endgame	82	106
foul	5	0
total	401	389

Result

Final score

401 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 66.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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