FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.49 – 236.1

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

195 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.2 ±10.4

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 125.39Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 72.5Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 53.6Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 554.1 ±10.4

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 53.06Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 35.37Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 147.67Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1305, 5036, 9263

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1305, 5036, 9263

Auto

48.9 20%

Teleop

142.3 58%

Endgame

52.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4920, 3161, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4920, 3161, 1360

Auto

32.3 14%

Teleop

122.0 54%

Endgame

72.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score251.5pts

Blue projected score236.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.4
Score range: 189–298
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 261.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.2Season APEX554.1

48.9Auto32.3

142.3Teleop122

52.6Endgame72.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	11
teleop	107	103
endgame	49	103
foul	15	30
total	195	247

Result

Final score

195 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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