Qualification · Qualification 18
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
171.91 – 301.52
17%83%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
200 – 157
Prediction missed · off by 86.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 183Event APEX 37.22Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -8.77Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 143.46Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±11
Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 77.09Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 65.21Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 159.22Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7712, 9580, 7200
45
/ 100 compatProjected
171.9 pts
~0.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7712, 9580, 7200
Auto
58.2 35%
Teleop
107.5 65%
Endgame
-1.4 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 10%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4308, 6975, 4069
73
/ 100 compatProjected
301.5 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4308, 6975, 4069
Auto
44.1 15%
Teleop
152.5 51%
Endgame
103.8 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 10%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.33
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score171.9pts
Blue projected score301.5pts
Red win probability17%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 32%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 18%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -129.6
- Score range
- 124–350
- Upset likelihood
- 17%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
349.1Season APEX307
58.2Auto44.1
107.5Teleop152.5
-1.4Endgame103.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 37 | 31 |
| teleop | 125 | 88 |
| endgame | 23 | 38 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 200 | 157 |
Result
Final score
200 – 157
Prediction missed · off by 86.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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