FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

242.71 – 383.73

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

345 – 650

Prediction correct · off by 184.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.8 ±9.8

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 107.57Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 131.55Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5689CK Cyber Pack

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 3.59Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 841.3 ±9.3

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 131.55Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 64.21Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 187.97Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10015, 5409, 5689

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10015, 5409, 5689

Auto

64.5 27%

Teleop

149.0 61%

Endgame

29.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4476, 7902, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4476, 7902, 1114

Auto

100.0 26%

Teleop

213.4 56%

Endgame

67.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score242.7pts

Blue projected score383.7pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141
Score range: 198–429
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 995 vs event baseline 252.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.8Season APEX841.3

64.5Auto100

149Teleop213.4

29.3Endgame67.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	99
teleop	169	328
endgame	109	218
foul	0	5
total	345	650

Result

Final score

345 – 650

Prediction correct · off by 184.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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