FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.27 – 134.18

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 104.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456 ±9.8

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 94.86Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 28.98Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX -21.57Rank 50Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.5 ±9.8

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 94.86Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 28.98Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 10.34Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7659, 2200, 2706

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7659, 2200, 2706

Auto

29.3 30%

Teleop

45.0 46%

Endgame

24.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7520, 9262, 3756

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7520, 9262, 3756

Auto

41.4 32%

Teleop

73.3 56%

Endgame

16.7 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score102.3pts

Blue projected score134.2pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.9
Score range: 56–180
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 445 vs event baseline 254.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456Season APEX420.5

29.3Auto41.4

45Teleop73.3

24.5Endgame16.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	48
teleop	100	120
endgame	20	55
foul	5	0
total	222	223

Result

Final score

222 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 104.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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