FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.96 – 273.1

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 94.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516.5 ±9.8

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX -37.4Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 119.98Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 31.38Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.8 ±9.8

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 80.06Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 64.87Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 128.17Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5672, 4678, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

114 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5672, 4678, 4976

Auto

9.0 8%

Teleop

68.8 62%

Endgame

33.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7476, 4907, 9569

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7476, 4907, 9569

Auto

44.4 17%

Teleop

166.3 64%

Endgame

51.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score114pts

Blue projected score273.1pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -159.1
Score range: 69–318
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 574 vs event baseline 251.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516.5Season APEX448.8

9Auto44.4

68.8Teleop166.3

33.2Endgame51

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	60
teleop	190	149
endgame	65	48
foul	0	15
total	302	272

Result

Final score

302 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 94.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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