FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.16 – 180.04

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 173.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.3 ±10.5

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 111.08Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX -5.75Rank 49Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX -21.17Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 669.5 ±9.8

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 52.15Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 58.57Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 69.32Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 865, 3560, 772

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 865, 3560, 772

Auto

17.9 22%

Teleop

36.3 44%

Endgame

28.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1360, 919, 2056

/ 100 compat

Projected

180 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1360, 919, 2056

Auto

44.7 26%

Teleop

96.2 57%

Endgame

29.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score84.2pts

Blue projected score180pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.9
Score range: 39–225
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 611 vs event baseline 247.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.3Season APEX669.5

17.9Auto44.7

36.3Teleop96.2

28.6Endgame29.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	61
teleop	103	286
endgame	22	89
foul	0	5
total	170	441

Result

Final score

170 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 173.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.