FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.03 – 110.17

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 264

Prediction missed · off by 156.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.4 ±9.8

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 112.17Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 116.86Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 80Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.8 ±10.4

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 50.95Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX -20.78Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 80Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10514, 7712, 3161

/ 100 compat

Projected

309 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10514, 7712, 3161

Auto

64.0 21%

Teleop

187.3 62%

Endgame

49.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11227, 9575, 7200

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11227, 9575, 7200

Auto

18.3 18%

Teleop

64.8 64%

Endgame

18.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score309pts

Blue projected score110.2pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 198.9
Score range: 65–354
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 251.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.4Season APEX305.8

64Auto18.3

187.3Teleop64.8

49.1Endgame18.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	34
teleop	83	172
endgame	36	58
foul	0	0
total	150	264

Result

Final score

150 – 264

Prediction missed · off by 156.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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