FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.07 – 219.72

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

435 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 237.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.3 ±9.8

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 43Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 55.5Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 14.57Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.9 ±10.4

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 102.97Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 26.26Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 90.49Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5406, 1305, 9562

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5406, 1305, 9562

Auto

31.7 28%

Teleop

57.9 51%

Endgame

24.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9263, 5870, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9263, 5870, 2386

Auto

30.7 14%

Teleop

135.1 62%

Endgame

53.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score113.1pts

Blue projected score219.7pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.6
Score range: 68–265
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 251.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.3Season APEX283.9

31.7Auto30.7

57.9Teleop135.1

24.8Endgame53.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	14
teleop	232	36
endgame	114	17
foul	0	0
total	435	67

Result

Final score

435 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 237.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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