FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.05 – 201.05

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

447 – 206

Prediction missed · off by 141.5 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 572 ±9.8

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 27.43Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 22.29Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 119.33Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.9 ±9.8

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 59.43Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 22.29Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 119.33Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2708, 4308, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2708, 4308, 1114

Auto

45.6 27%

Teleop

84.0 50%

Endgame

37.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6875, 5596, 10015

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6875, 5596, 10015

Auto

48.4 24%

Teleop

116.3 58%

Endgame

34.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score169.1pts

Blue projected score201.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32
Score range: 125–245
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 653 vs event baseline 243.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

572Season APEX345.9

45.6Auto48.4

84Teleop116.3

37.4Endgame34.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	121	37
teleop	221	145
endgame	100	24
foul	5	0
total	447	206

Result

Final score

447 – 206

Prediction missed · off by 141.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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