FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 100

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

300.35 – 542.36

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 358

Prediction correct · off by 157.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.9 ±9.8

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 59.66Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 230.66Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 10.03Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 795.7 ±8.1

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 225.59Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 204.23Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 112.54Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7476, 4678, 3756

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7476, 4678, 3756

Auto

59.2 20%

Teleop

173.6 60%

Endgame

57.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1325, 5406, 10015

/ 100 compat

Projected

542.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1325, 5406, 10015

Auto

103.5 19%

Teleop

318.7 59%

Endgame

120.7 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score300.3pts

Blue projected score542.4pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -242
Score range: 251–591
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 528 vs event baseline 272.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.9Season APEX795.7

59.2Auto103.5

173.6Teleop318.7

57.1Endgame120.7

20Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	108
teleop	45	178
endgame	102	72
foul	0	0
total	170	358

Result

Final score

170 – 358

Prediction correct · off by 157.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree