FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.08 – 228.57

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.9 ±11

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 14.22Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 92Rank 48Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 58.86Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.2 ±10.4

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 55.14Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 58.86Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 114.57Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7757, 6975, 9580

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7757, 6975, 9580

Auto

24.9 16%

Teleop

101.7 64%

Endgame

33.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9659, 5036, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9659, 5036, 4920

Auto

60.9 28%

Teleop

125.1 57%

Endgame

35.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score165.1pts

Blue projected score228.6pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.5
Score range: 119–275
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 256.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.9Season APEX314.2

24.9Auto60.9

101.7Teleop125.1

33.2Endgame35.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	22
teleop	10	106
endgame	45	53
foul	0	15
total	65	196

Result

Final score

65 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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