FIRST Ontario Provincial Championship - Science Division

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

334.11 – 215.69

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 525.4 ±9.8

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 36.29Rank 39Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 2.27Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 295.55Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.9 ±10.5

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 33Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 14.6Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 168.09Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5036, 9580, 2056

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5036, 9580, 2056

Auto

90.5 28%

Teleop

189.3 58%

Endgame

48.3 15%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11428, 3756, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11428, 3756, 5406

Auto

60.8 28%

Teleop

116.5 54%

Endgame

39.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score334.1pts

Blue projected score215.7pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.4
Score range: 163–387
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 293.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

525.4Season APEX445.9

90.5Auto60.8

189.3Teleop116.5

48.3Endgame39.2

71Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	49
teleop	119	101
endgame	0	47
foul	20	0
total	206	197

Result

Final score

206 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 73.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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