Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
145.96 – 197.38
35%65%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
302 – 115
Prediction missed · off by 119.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.2 ±11
Season APEX 70Event APEX 40.71Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 35.85Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 69.4Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 42.93Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 81.02Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 73.43Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6110, 3739, 7200
56
/ 100 compatProjected
146 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 6110, 3739, 7200
Auto
27.7 20%
Teleop
77.4 55%
Endgame
36.0 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1310, 5031, 9569
69
/ 100 compatProjected
197.4 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 1310, 5031, 9569
Auto
42.0 22%
Teleop
94.5 50%
Endgame
52.4 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.93
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score146pts
Blue projected score197.4pts
Red win probability35%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 51%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -51.4
- Score range
- 115–228
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
300.2Season APEX357.7
27.7Auto42
77.4Teleop94.5
36Endgame52.4
0Consistency32
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 60 | 49 |
| teleop | 155 | 57 |
| endgame | 52 | 4 |
| foul | 35 | 5 |
| total | 302 | 115 |
Result
Final score
302 – 115
Prediction missed · off by 119.2 pts
Match videos
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