Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.39 – 156.76

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.7 ±10.4

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 40.24Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 77.51Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 70.64Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.8 ±10.4

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 92.6Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 50.9Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 13.26Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1310, 5031, 9569

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1310, 5031, 9569

Auto

38.7 22%

Teleop

85.6 48%

Endgame

54.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2706, 4951, 4688

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2706, 4951, 4688

Auto

21.7 15%

Teleop

70.3 48%

Endgame

55.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.4pts

Blue projected score156.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.6
Score range: 126–219
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 173.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.7Season APEX315.8

38.7Auto21.7

85.6Teleop70.3

54.6Endgame55.3

28Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	25
teleop	125	77
endgame	40	52
foul	5	0
total	225	154

Result

Final score

225 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Match videos

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