Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.49 – 189.9

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 6.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124.2 ±13.3

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 14.09Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 11.04Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 40.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.3 ±10.4

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 23.86Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 73.97Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 92.07Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8081, 6859, 6397

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8081, 6859, 6397

Auto

18.8 31%

Teleop

23.2 38%

Endgame

19.6 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 854, 4920, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 854, 4920, 865

Auto

45.0 24%

Teleop

100.4 54%

Endgame

41.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.5pts

Blue projected score189.9pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.4
Score range: 34–221
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 174.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124.2Season APEX384.3

18.8Auto45

23.2Teleop100.4

19.6Endgame41.5

28Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	77
teleop	24	99
endgame	11	17
foul	5	0
total	55	193

Result

Final score

55 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 6.8 pts

Match videos

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