Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.13 – 178.19

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

363 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 101.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.7 ±10.4

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -4.01Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 119.83Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 136.31Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.8 ±10.4

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 20.49Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 58.43Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 99.27Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9580, 1305, 4069

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9580, 1305, 4069

Auto

44.8 18%

Teleop

128.3 53%

Endgame

70.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4688, 4951, 2706

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4688, 4951, 2706

Auto

24.2 15%

Teleop

84.5 51%

Endgame

57.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score252.1pts

Blue projected score178.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.9
Score range: 147–283
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 173.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.7Season APEX315.8

44.8Auto24.2

128.3Teleop84.5

70.4Endgame57.4

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	18
teleop	215	25
endgame	52	43
foul	20	0
total	363	86

Result

Final score

363 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 101.5 pts

Match videos

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