Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

275.29 – 190.08

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

335 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.3 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 28.86Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 98.28Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 148.15Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.7 ±10.4

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 70.7Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 40.22Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 79.16Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 5885, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 5885, 8884

Auto

47.4 17%

Teleop

167.5 61%

Endgame

59.6 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9569, 1310, 5031

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9569, 1310, 5031

Auto

34.5 19%

Teleop

88.2 49%

Endgame

56.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score275.3pts

Blue projected score190.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.2
Score range: 159–306
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 172.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.3Season APEX357.7

47.4Auto34.5

167.5Teleop88.2

59.6Endgame56.9

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	55
teleop	190	76
endgame	96	47
foul	0	5
total	335	183

Result

Final score

335 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Match videos

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