Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.77 – 205.5

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 105.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.2 ±11

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 30.29Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3739Oakbotics

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 26.43Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 60.05Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.3 ±10.4

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 28.82Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 79.17Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 97.51Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6110, 3739, 7200

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6110, 3739, 7200

Auto

20.9 18%

Teleop

63.7 56%

Endgame

29.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 854, 4920, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 854, 4920, 865

Auto

45.2 22%

Teleop

109.9 54%

Endgame

47.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.8pts

Blue projected score205.5pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.7
Score range: 86–237
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 171.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.2Season APEX384.3

20.9Auto45.2

63.7Teleop109.9

29.4Endgame47.7

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	47
teleop	125	64
endgame	64	18
foul	20	5
total	257	134

Result

Final score

257 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 105.9 pts

Match videos

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