Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

413.22 – 271.41

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

358 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 626 ±9.3

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 230.88Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 22.57Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 159.77Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.3 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 27.58Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 95.81Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 148.02Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7558, 10611, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7558, 10611, 188

Auto

55.2 14%

Teleop

251.9 62%

Endgame

100.7 25%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8349, 5885, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 5885, 8884

Auto

46.6 17%

Teleop

159.3 59%

Endgame

62.2 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score413.2pts

Blue projected score271.4pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.8
Score range: 239–445
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 176.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

626Season APEX454.3

55.2Auto46.6

251.9Teleop159.3

100.7Endgame62.2

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	35
teleop	197	143
endgame	77	64
foul	20	15
total	358	257

Result

Final score

358 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 pts

Match videos

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