Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

259.2 – 190.19

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.7 ±10.4

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -1.09Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 121.92Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 138.37Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.3 ±10.4

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 23.26Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 73.65Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 93.28Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9580, 1305, 4069

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9580, 1305, 4069

Auto

50.5 20%

Teleop

137.1 55%

Endgame

61.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 854, 4920, 865

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 854, 4920, 865

Auto

50.0 27%

Teleop

100.3 53%

Endgame

37.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score259.2pts

Blue projected score190.2pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69
Score range: 158–291
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 515 vs event baseline 175.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.7Season APEX384.3

50.5Auto50

137.1Teleop100.3

61Endgame37.7

0Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	64
teleop	141	89
endgame	38	64
foul	40	0
total	298	217

Result

Final score

298 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Match videos

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