Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.18 – 114.44

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.1 ±11

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 80.86Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 21.75Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 28.57Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.3 ±12.2

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 52.57Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 20.73Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 41.14Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1305, 5031, 6110

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1305, 5031, 6110

Auto

15.9 12%

Teleop

67.3 50%

Endgame

50.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5885, 6864, 4015

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5885, 6864, 4015

Auto

39.2 34%

Teleop

64.0 56%

Endgame

10.7 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.2pts

Blue projected score114.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.7
Score range: 87–158
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 150.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.1Season APEX209.3

15.9Auto39.2

67.3Teleop64

50.5Endgame10.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	35
teleop	144	66
endgame	57	24
foul	0	5
total	258	130

Result

Final score

258 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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