Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

240.62 – 183.44

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413 ±10.5

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 84.9Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 4.95Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 150.77Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.2 ±10.4

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 61.62Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 21.29Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 100.53Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5031, 9782, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5031, 9782, 8884

Auto

32.2 14%

Teleop

153.5 67%

Endgame

43.0 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7200, 4688, 2706

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7200, 4688, 2706

Auto

31.9 18%

Teleop

97.1 55%

Endgame

48.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score240.6pts

Blue projected score183.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.2
Score range: 152–272
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 170.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413Season APEX341.2

32.2Auto31.9

153.5Teleop97.1

43Endgame48.4

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	22
teleop	90	95
endgame	58	45
foul	10	15
total	201	177

Result

Final score

201 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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