Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.67 – 51.68

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.2 ±12.2

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 33.88Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 37.2Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 77.59Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.7 ±11.7

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 53.39Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -5.37Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 3.66Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4015, 6110, 9569

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4015, 6110, 9569

Auto

25.1 18%

Teleop

73.7 52%

Endgame

43.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4951, 9580, 6859

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4951, 9580, 6859

Auto

14.8 30%

Teleop

17.6 36%

Endgame

16.2 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.7pts

Blue projected score51.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97
Score range: 21–180
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 172.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.2Season APEX154.7

25.1Auto14.8

73.7Teleop17.6

43.5Endgame16.2

16Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	9
teleop	39	12
endgame	15	43
foul	0	30
total	75	94

Result

Final score

75 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 58 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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