Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.47 – 134.35

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

210 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 69.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.6 ±10.4

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 19.43Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 135.62Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 4.42Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.5 ±14.9

9592Blues Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 12Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 72.82Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 49.53Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10611, 4069, 5672

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10611, 4069, 5672

Auto

25.0 16%

Teleop

71.0 47%

Endgame

56.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9592, 4920, 7603

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9592, 4920, 7603

Auto

15.2 12%

Teleop

66.2 54%

Endgame

40.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.5pts

Blue projected score134.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.1
Score range: 103–190
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 171.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.6Season APEX277.5

25Auto15.2

71Teleop66.2

56.5Endgame40.2

45Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	51
teleop	113	107
endgame	50	55
foul	15	10
total	210	223

Result

Final score

210 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 69.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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