Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.11 – 148.2

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.9 ±13.9

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 17.79Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9592Blues Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 17.41Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 51.91Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.2 ±12.2

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 14.19Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 93.88Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 40.13Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10611, 9592, 4951

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10611, 9592, 4951

Auto

18.6 23%

Teleop

29.6 36%

Endgame

32.9 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8081, 2706, 6397

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8081, 2706, 6397

Auto

25.7 18%

Teleop

77.2 53%

Endgame

42.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.1pts

Blue projected score148.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.1
Score range: 54–181
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 183.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.9Season APEX219.2

18.6Auto25.7

29.6Teleop77.2

32.9Endgame42

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	23
teleop	6	85
endgame	21	27
foul	15	0
total	52	135

Result

Final score

52 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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