Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.69 – 415.21

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 446

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.5 ±11.1

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 43.82Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 40Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 31.87Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.4 ±9.8

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 98.56Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 84.56Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 232.09Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6397, 6110, 8349

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6397, 6110, 8349

Auto

16.4 15%

Teleop

58.9 54%

Endgame

34.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2706, 5031, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2706, 5031, 7558

Auto

55.8 14%

Teleop

247.1 61%

Endgame

98.9 25%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.7pts

Blue projected score415.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -299.5
Score range: 86–445
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 557 vs event baseline 167.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.5Season APEX562.4

16.4Auto55.8

58.9Teleop247.1

34.4Endgame98.9

4Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	80
teleop	46	261
endgame	42	105
foul	5	0
total	111	446

Result

Final score

111 – 446

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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