Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.18 – 0

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.6 ±10.4

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 70.75Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 52.21Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX -3.78Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 123.6 ±12.2

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 32.8Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -38.89Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 2.62Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4920, 4951, 7659

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4920, 4951, 7659

Auto

4.5 4%

Teleop

59.8 53%

Endgame

47.7 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4015, 6865, 9782

/ 100 compat

Projected

-3.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4015, 6865, 9782

Auto

7.2 0%

Teleop

-10.6 94%

Endgame

-7.9 70%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.2pts

Blue projected score-3.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.2
Score range: -30–149
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 168.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.6Season APEX123.6

4.5Auto7.2

59.8Teleop-10.6

47.7Endgame-7.9

5Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	9
teleop	73	14
endgame	53	4
foul	0	5
total	164	32

Result

Final score

164 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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