Qualification · Qualification 57
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
213.63 – 0
94%6%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
97 – 103
Prediction missed · off by 109.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 381 ±11.2
Season APEX 14Event APEX 15.36Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 165.85Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 32.42Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.8 ±11
Season APEX 42.1Event APEX -10.41Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 13.11Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 76.8Event APEX -4.12Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6859, 8884, 4688
73
/ 100 compatProjected
213.6 pts
~2.5 RP (district)
Teams: 6859, 8884, 4688
Auto
36.5 18%
Teleop
120.1 58%
Endgame
50.7 24%
Strengths
- · 8884 anchors offense
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6864, 3739, 5672
3
/ 100 compatProjected
-1.4 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 6864, 3739, 5672
Auto
2.3 0%
Teleop
-11.7 100%
Endgame
3.3 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.67
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score213.6pts
Blue projected score-1.4pts
Red win probability94%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 213.6
- Score range
- -31–245
- Upset likelihood
- 6%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
381Season APEX234.8
36.5Auto2.3
120.1Teleop-11.7
50.7Endgame3.3
42Consistency69
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 23 | 19 |
| teleop | 64 | 58 |
| endgame | 5 | 26 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 97 | 103 |
Result
Final score
97 – 103
Prediction missed · off by 109.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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