Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.12 – 185.18

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239 ±11.7

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 30.71Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 48.45Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 31.96Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.3 ±10.4

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 95.63Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 21.68Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 67.87Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 854, 7603, 1310

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 854, 7603, 1310

Auto

32.4 31%

Teleop

36.5 35%

Endgame

34.9 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 865, 10611, 7200

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 865, 10611, 7200

Auto

45.1 24%

Teleop

98.5 52%

Endgame

44.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.1pts

Blue projected score185.2pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.1
Score range: 80–216
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 170.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239Season APEX349.3

32.4Auto45.1

36.5Teleop98.5

34.9Endgame44.8

13Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	57
teleop	62	88
endgame	31	15
foul	0	0
total	122	160

Result

Final score

122 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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