Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

362.75 – 217.59

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

538 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 128.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.2 ±10.5

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 24.16Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 121.08Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 217.51Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383 ±9.8

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 162.06Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -28.49Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 84.02Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6110, 4069, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6110, 4069, 7558

Auto

47.9 13%

Teleop

211.8 59%

Endgame

101.0 28%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 188, 6865, 9569

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 188, 6865, 9569

Auto

26.9 13%

Teleop

124.4 59%

Endgame

58.6 28%

Strengths

· 188 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score362.8pts

Blue projected score217.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.2
Score range: 188–393
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 673 vs event baseline 167.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.2Season APEX383

47.9Auto26.9

211.8Teleop124.4

101Endgame58.6

19Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	32
teleop	295	47
endgame	129	41
foul	25	15
total	538	135

Result

Final score

538 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 128.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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