Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.46 – 231.93

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.6 ±12.8

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 55.07Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 21.32Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10611Gemini Robotics

Season APEX 72.9Event APEX 26.07Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.5 ±9.8

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 160.35Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 22.1Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4951CDS Cyclones

Season APEX 88.9Event APEX 49.48Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7603, 6859, 10611

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7603, 6859, 10611

Auto

20.4 20%

Teleop

39.2 39%

Endgame

41.0 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8884, 854, 4951

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8884, 854, 4951

Auto

34.8 15%

Teleop

142.0 62%

Endgame

50.9 22%

Strengths

· 8884 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.5pts

Blue projected score231.9pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129.5
Score range: 72–262
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 166.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.6Season APEX397.5

20.4Auto34.8

39.2Teleop142

41Endgame50.9

10Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	55
teleop	15	157
endgame	17	94
foul	0	0
total	55	306

Result

Final score

55 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 60.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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