Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.1 – 304.41

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.7 ±11

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 36.34Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 48.3Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX -0.54Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.6 ±9.8

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 82.9Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 157.4Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4920Belle River Boltheads

Season APEX 162.7Event APEX 64.11Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1310, 6397, 5672

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1310, 6397, 5672

Auto

23.3 34%

Teleop

20.4 30%

Endgame

25.3 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5031, 188, 4920

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5031, 188, 4920

Auto

42.3 14%

Teleop

180.6 61%

Endgame

71.9 24%

Strengths

· 188 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.1pts

Blue projected score304.4pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -220.3
Score range: 54–334
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 165.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.7Season APEX494.6

23.3Auto42.3

20.4Teleop180.6

25.3Endgame71.9

31Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	42
teleop	11	207
endgame	25	101
foul	5	25
total	61	375

Result

Final score

61 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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