Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.48 – 179.89

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 75.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490 ±11.2

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 209.05Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 27.13Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 60.3Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343 ±11.7

9569Milliken Mills Silver Knights

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 79.84Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

865WARP7

Season APEX 162.1Event APEX 94.9Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8081UMEI Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 5.15Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7558, 4015, 7200

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7558, 4015, 7200

Auto

48.1 16%

Teleop

181.8 61%

Endgame

69.6 23%

Strengths

· 7558 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9569, 865, 8081

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9569, 865, 8081

Auto

39.5 23%

Teleop

102.5 59%

Endgame

32.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score296.5pts

Blue projected score179.9pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.6
Score range: 151–325
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 628 vs event baseline 162.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490Season APEX343

48.1Auto39.5

181.8Teleop102.5

69.6Endgame32.8

37Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	56
teleop	245	91
endgame	97	65
foul	10	5
total	411	217

Result

Final score

411 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 75.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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