Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.81 – 114.58

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.8 ±10.4

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX -14.34Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 93.41Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5885Villanova WiredCats

Season APEX 128.8Event APEX 73.74Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.6 ±12.2

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 23.27Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

76037603 VESPA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 60.5Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4688Saints Bot

Season APEX 117.9Event APEX 30.81Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7659, 2706, 5885

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7659, 2706, 5885

Auto

24.7 16%

Teleop

79.9 53%

Endgame

46.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6110, 7603, 4688

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6110, 7603, 4688

Auto

22.4 20%

Teleop

52.6 47%

Endgame

35.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.8pts

Blue projected score114.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.2
Score range: 86–182
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 162.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.8Season APEX255.6

24.7Auto22.4

79.9Teleop52.6

46.3Endgame35.9

56Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	19
teleop	130	47
endgame	37	40
foul	5	25
total	224	131

Result

Final score

224 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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